CSU, NOAA lower number of expected hurricanes, still calls for active season

Both NOAA, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, and CSU, Colorado State University, updated their forecast on Thursday for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Here’s the very latest from NOAA.

As you can see from their previous forecast, they have slightly decreased the seasonal outlook in total tropical storms from 14 – 21 now to 14 – 20. Also, their expectations for major hurricanes have decreased from 3 – 6 down to 3 – 5. Subtle and slight changes, but nevertheless a decrease in tropical forecasted activity.

With the slight decrease in the forecast, NOAA’s 2022 seasonal forecast has dropped from 65% down to a 60% chance of an above-average season.

From NOAA to CSU, here’s the very latest from Colorado State University and what they expect for the remainder of the season.

Great news, their expectations have slightly decreased as well! They have downgraded from their previous forecast from late May. Their updated outlook has now dropped from 20 to 18 tropical storms, 10 to 8 hurricanes, and 5 to 4 major hurricanes.

It appears both NOAA and CSU are still expecting an above-average season, but a slightly lesser amount than previously thought back in May. Here’s a side-by-side comparison.

If you’re curious as to where we currently are in terms of tropical activity, the month of August is typically when there is an increase in tropical development. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10th, so we’re about 5 weeks out from the climatological peak.

As of now, the Weather Authority is not expecting any chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. Great news once again.

For the very latest, keep it tuned to WINK News, the Weather Authority, for all your tropical information and local weather updates.

The Weather Authority will let you know when we are tracking any potential storm systems. You can keep up with our weather coverage by clicking here.