Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forms Over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two formed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening.

This system currently has 35 mph winds and is moving to the northeast at a slow 3 mph.

It is expected to move slowly to the northeast over the next couple of days, where it is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday. It will be given the name “Wilfred” which is the last name on the list for the 2020 season! (After that, any more named storms will need to use the Greek alphabet) From there, it may even strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane later in the weekend.

After Saturday, it is forecast to turn to the west and head towards the coast of Texas, where it may bring impacts to that area beginning early next week. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the track (you’ll see what we mean when you look at the messy model plots below!), but for now, it does not appear to be a threat to SW Florida.

Elsewhere, another area of low pressure a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has a 50% chance of development. This is percentage lower compared to earlier this week. After Friday, conditions will become less favorable for development over the weekend. Regardless, it’s something to monitor.

Finally, powerful Category 4 Hurricane Teddy continues to churn in the central Atlantic. This is not expected to bring any direct impacts to Florida, but, it may bring us some in-direct and beneficial impacts regarding the arrival of less-humid conditions next week!

Teddy is currently moving to the northwest at 13 mph with 140 mph maximum sustained winds. The forecast has Teddy turning due north by Sunday, which aims it very close to Bermuda late Sunday into Monday, where they have a chance of seeing another direct hit after already experiencing Paulette earlier this week.

For Southwest Florida, if this forecast track of Teddy verifies, it will help drive a cold front through our area early next week on the backside of it’s counter-clockwise circulation. This would mean less humidity with dewpoints in the 60s beginning Tuesday! It would also make for breezy conditions, but overall extremely pleasant weather for mid-September! This is not set in stone, and things can change, but we’ll keep our fingers crossed!