Tropical Depression Seven forms in Atlantic, Gonzalo expected soon

Reporter: Dylan Federico Writer: Derrick Shaw
Published: Updated:

It’s becoming increasingly likely that both Gonzalo and Hanna will form in the Atlantic before the end of the week. Tropical Depression Seven formed Tuesday afternoon – and it isn’t even August.

The wave closer to our region is pushing across Cuba and the Florida straits Tuesday, bringing higher rain chances and breezy conditions to the Florida Peninsula. Over the next few days, the wave will slide west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, with an eventual landfall in Texas by this weekend. Conditions are expected to be favorable enough for weak tropical development, and this is reflected with a medium 40% chance of development from the National Hurricane Center, along with some model support. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate later Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be the main threat for the western Gulf Coast.

A small, but vigorous tropical disturbance, located midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, became Tropical Depression Seven on Tuesday. Satellite shows persisting deep thunderstorm activity near the center, surrounded by increasingly well-defined banding features. The NHC said the system has 35 mph winds and is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. The forecast calls for TD 7 to become a tropical storm late Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Small disturbances like TD 7 are extremely unpredictable and difficult to forecast. The small size makes it more vulnerable to wind shear and dry air. But if it were to strengthen, it can also become more resistant to these negative factors. Model guidance has become progressively more aggressive Tuesday afternoon, and while TD 7 is no immediate threat to land, it bears watching in the Lesser Antilles in the coming days. Needless to say, the long term prospects of TD 7 are highly uncertain, but July climatology has shown these systems get torn apart by wind shear and dry air once entering the eastern Caribbean.

Trust The Weather Authority to keep you updated as these systems are monitored.

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