Experts say tracking spread of coronavirus easier said than done

Health and math experts explained to us Thursday it’s not easy to model and predict the spread of the coronavirus.

Health experts are also looking at the properties of the virus, including how contagious it is and if it can become airborne.

When new spread of COVID-19 occurs, it’s up to contact tracers to get to the bottom of it and help stop continued spread.

“We contact those direct contact, and we let them know they may have been exposed to somebody who has COVID-19,” said Kristine Hollingsworth with Florida Department of Health in Collier County. “We’ve had contact tracing, direct contact, who have been 40 people deep.”

And all of that relies on people remembering and identifying others who they have come in contact with and health officials tracking them down.

We asked Senthil Balaji, an associate professor of mathematics at FGCU, about breaking down the numbers.

“Unless we know for sure exactly how things are developing and we have enough data, we cannot be exact,” Balaji said.

“How bad is it going to be? Really, it’s staying greater than one, scares us and concerns us,” said Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos, an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins. “It means it’s a very, highly contagious virus.”

Collier County has around 30 contact tracers, and officials say they are ready to add more if the need arises.

And how quickly we can change the outcome can depend on simple steps such as social distancing and wearing masks, especially on a holiday weekend.

“I would say stay home, or wear a mask,” Balaji said.