Tropical Storm Nestor expected to form, impact Florida this weekend
A tropical disturbance is trying to get better organized in the SW Gulf. In fact, satellite estimates already have wind near tropical storm-force. If it can continue to get its act together, we could have Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Nestor as early as Thursday.
As of 11 p.m., National Hurricane Center in Miami reports Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm sometime Thursday night or Friday.
The system is in the western Gulf moving northeast at 12 mph with max winds at 40 mph.
The system will be battling wind shear down the road, but if it can overcome it and feed off tropical moisture and warmer than normal Gulf waters, it has the opportunity to strengthen.
Models have shifted slightly east, but still cluster towards northern Florida from the Panhandle to the Big Bend. Even though that would keep the center of circulation away from Southwest Florida, we still would see an influence.
Timing: Friday night into Saturday
Rainfall: 0.50 – 1.50″ on average. Few isolated spots 1.50″+. Greatest totals will be north of the Caloosahatchee.
Wind: Breezy inland, windy along the coast. Sustained wind between 15 – 25 mph. Wind gusts between 25 – 40 mph.
Severe Weather: A quick isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
Coast: Higher than normal surf. Beach erosion in spots. Minor coastal flooding and a small surge is possible.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
- Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
- Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.