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Hurricane Dorian forecast track Sunday 11 p.m. (WINK News) THE LATEST NOTE: This story is no longer being updated. Go to our Hurricane Central page for the latest updates. Hurricane Dorian continues to be a Category 5 hurricane, but maximum sustained winds have decreased, sustained at 180 mph. However, it remains an “incredibly powerful” hurricane and is making landfahll on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island as of 11 p.m. Sunday. The National Hurricane Center reports a prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. The hurricane is expected to continue its slow motion, which will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm surge, and rainfall over those areas. Wind gusts in the Abocos are reaching over 220 mph, with storm surge at 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with destructive waves. NHC warns this is a life-threatening situation and says residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of Dorian remains over the area. These hazards will continue to cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours. In general, the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors. The current forecast continues to keep all of Southwest Florida out of the cone. However, NHC emphasizes that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, focus should not be placed on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the east coast, which could also add impacts to SWFL. As of 11 p.m. Sunday, Hurricane Dorian is a major hurricane and considered potentially “catastrophic” with maximum sustained winds of about 180 miles per hour. The current location is at 26.6°N 77.9°W and has a minimum pressure of 914 mb as it heads west at 6 mph. The center of the storm was approximately 135 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida and right over Great Abaco Island. The WINK News Weather Authority team is working hard to monitor and forecast this storm as it approaches the east coast. COMPLETE COVERAGE: WINK News Hurricane Central Hurricane Dorian forecast track Sunday 11 p.m. (WINK News) MODELS We have put together two possibilities with our two most reliable forecast models: the European model and the American model. The difference in these models has shrunk significantly compared to Friday. Right now, they are in good agreement that Southwest Florida will receive 1-2″ inches of rain and wind gusts will reach 20-35 miles per hour. We will continue to fine-tune this forecast over the coming days. Please keep in mind that this forecast *WILL* change. GFS Wind Gusts Florida–5 a.m. (WINK News) GFS Rain Chances Florida–5 a.m. (WINK News) EURO Wind Gusts Florida–5 a.m. (WINK News) EURO Rain Chances Florida–5 a.m. (WINK News) WATCHES AND WARNINGS A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Flagler/Volusia County line to St. Maty’s River, which means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward from Flagler/Volusia County line to St. Maty’s River. This means that there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning has also been issued from Lantana to the Volusia/ Brevard County line, which means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. It is highly recommended preparations to protect life and property are rushed to be completed in those areas. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Deerfield Beach to Lantana as well as the Volusia/Brevard Count line to the Flagler/Volusia County line. This means that there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island as well as the Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line, which means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to the Jupiter Inlet as well as the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County line, which means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet on the east coast of Florida, which means tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach on the east coast of Florida and Lake Okeechobee, which means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally 48 hours. Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida, so counties can prepare for potential impacts. OTHER TROPICAL NEWS The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave just off the African coast. It’s currently located approximately 150 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Right now, there is a low chance of development over the next 2 days (50%) and a medium chance of development over the next 5 days (70%). We will be monitoring this closely and a tropical depression is possible later this week. Tropical Satellite– Sunday 11 a.m. (WINK News) The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development is possible as the disturbance moves west toward the Mexico coast. Right now, there is a low chance of development over the next 2 days (20%) and a low chance of development over the next 5 days (30%). The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of low pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean, south-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development is possible over the next five days as it moves north-northwest. Right now, there is a low chance of development over the next 2 days (near 0%) and a low chance of development over the next 5 days (20%). MORE: Twitter accounts to follow this hurricane season Where to get up-to-date WINK weather coverage Where to find free sandbags Hospitals prepare for Hurricane Dorian Gas stations preparing for lines, some already running out For complete coverage go to WINK News Hurricane Central Hurricane Dorian: LCEC prepares for power outages ahead of storm HURRICANE GUIDE On a mobile device? Tap HERE to read the WINK News Hurricane Guide SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE 2019 WINK NEWS HURRICANE SPECIAL Submit Copyright ©2024 Fort Myers Broadcasting. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without prior written consent.