Florida, Alabama and Texas hold the top three
spots in the first BCS standings and control their fates in the
national championship race.

The Gators (.988) are in first, just ahead of the Crimson Tide
(.952). Texas (.891) is third.

Boise State (.808) is fourth, but the Broncos still seem to be a
long shot to play for a national championship.

Florida is No. 1 in the two polls used by the Bowl Championship
Series - the USA Today coaches' poll and Harris poll - and rated
highest by the computers. The polls make up two-thirds of a BCS
grade and a compilation of six computer ratings accounts for the
other third.

Alabama is second in all the components. Texas is third in the
two polls and sixth in the computer ratings.

With the strength of their remaining schedules, the Gators, Tide
and Longhorns just need to win out to reach the BCS title game on
Jan. 7 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., according to BCS
analyst Jerry Palm.

Alabama and Florida would play each other in the Southeastern
Conference championship game if each remains undefeated.
While the top teams in the standings are in good position,
history is not on their side.

In the first 11 years of the BCS, the top two teams in the first
standings have reached the title game once. Texas and Southern
California did it in 2005 season. Overall, 10 of the 22 teams that
were ranked first or second in the first standings made it all the
way to the championship game.

That would seem to be good news for unbeaten Boise State, but
the Broncos have other problems.

"The national championship is not realistic for them," Palm
said. "They're going to get passed. Their support in the polls is
eroding each week."

Poll points, not rankings, are used in the BCS formula. Boise
State lost 17 points in the coaches' poll despite moving up a spot
to No. 5 this week.

Palm said fifth-place Cincinnati, sixth-place Iowa, both
unbeaten, and seventh-place Southern California, which has lost a
game, are all in position to pass the Broncos if they keep winning
because those three teams play tougher schedules the rest of the
way.

Boise State, from the Western Athletic Conference, does not have
another ranked team on its schedule.

The Broncos are trying to reach the BCS from a league without an
automatic bid for the second time. To earn an automatic bid, teams
from the WAC, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American
Conference and Conference USA need to finish in the top 12 of the
final BCS standings.

But only one team from those leagues can bust the BCS and Boise
State has competition.

"The only team that matters to Boise is TCU," Palm said.

Undefeated TCU is in eighth place. If the Horned Frogs run the
table in the Mountain West, Palm said they have a good chance to
pass Boise State.

"If I had to bet I would bet TCU eventually does," Palm said.
"Because they're going to win a better league."