Published: Jul 02, 2010 6:40 PM EDT
Updated: Jul 02, 2010 3:41 PM EDT

MIAMI (AP) - A new computer model shows oil from the massive
Gulf of Mexico spill has as high as an 80 percent chance of
reaching the Florida Keys and Miami.
      The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the
forecast Friday. It shows a 61 to 80 percent chance of sheen, tar
balls or other oil remnants coming within 20 miles of Florida's
eastern coast, from the Keys north to the Fort Lauderdale area, by
the 120th day of the spill on August 18.
      Outside those areas and the Florida Panhandle, which has already
seen beaches littered with tar balls, other areas show a low
probability of oil. The state's western coast has a 20 percent
chance or lower of seeing oil; parts of southwest Florida have less
than a 1 percent chance.

To read NOAA analysis: