WASHINGTON, D.C. - NOAA is predicting an “active to extremely active” hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin this year.
NOAA is predicting that this hurricane season will bring 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
Some of the reasons for this more active prediction inlcude upper atmospher winds are conducive for storms, wind shear will be weaker since El Nino dissipated and water temperatures are above average.
An Average storm season would be11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.