Super Bowl 2018: Wall Street rooting for this team
Sorry, Philadelphians, Wall Street is likely rooting against you in Super Bowl 52. A historical look at the relationship between what team triumphs in the big game and stock market returns suggests investors have no love for the underdog.
When the favored team wins, the S&P 500 delivers an average return of 13.1 percent in the following year, while the return drops to 9.6 percent when the underdog pulls off an upset, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Adding insult to injury for the Eagles, the stock market roots for the home team, returning an average 16.3 percent in the year following a home team win compared to just 8.6 percent when the road team is victorious.
But unlike the slew of Americans who are said to be tuning out this year, the market prefers a longer game, responding with an average return of 16.7 percent when the game goes into overtime.
In another indication Wall Street is squarely in the corner of the New England Patriots, S&P notes that when a former champion returns and wins, the average market return is 13.2 percent.
The pro-Patriots message from Wall Street is a bit muddied, however, as when the five-time Super Bowl champs win, the average market return in subsequent years averages 3.4 percent, compared to 7.7 percent after the Pats lose.
Since the Eagles have never won the big game, losing both times they’ve played, the market would be in uncharted territory of sorts, should that happen.
Of course, if the link between pigskin results and pork belly prices seems dubious, you’re probably onto to something. Or as S&P puts it:
“This data is not intended to represent a fundamental analysis of market trends or historical data and in no way is intended to be the basis for any investment decisions whatsoever.”